2003.05.27

Googleは崩壊する

とセンセーショナル？な題名をつけて煽ってみる．最近，Googleの検索の質が落ちてないだろうか．例えば疑問があってクエリーをかけてみると答えが返ってくるのではなくて同じ疑問を持った人のページがひっかかったり．そういうことがたびたび起こっている．何が理由なのか．その一端はWeblogが担っているのではないかと想像する．
さて，Googleの素晴らしさは何よりもリンク中心型の評価アルゴリズムPageRankにある．「よいページからリンクされたページはよいページである」という仮説に基づき，全てのページから全てのページへのリンク関係を抽出し，行列に落とし込んで固有ベクトルを計算する．これには膨大な計算パワーが必要になるけどそれは数千台単位のクラスタによって現実的な時間で処理される，と，大雑把にいえばそんな感じ．完全にトップダウン・中央集権的なやり方で，よくもまあいままで力業で続けてこられたなあと感心することしきり．しかし，ここにきてWeblogの存在がそれを不可能にしつつある．Weblogの特徴をあらためて挙げてみると，よくできたコンテンツマネジメントシステムによる高い更新性，そしてTrackBackを含めたリンクの自由度というところか．で，この2点がGoogleの手法と真っ向から対立する．PageRankでは全てのページをまとめて計算しないと意味がなく，その計算時間はあまりに長い．よって数日に1度ランキングを更新することになるわけやけど，Weblog世界ではその数日のうちに何十万というエントリーが追加されていて，これからも増加量は大きくなるばかり．PageRankがそれらのエントリーを取り込む頃にはそれらは旬を過ぎていて意味をなさない．こういうスピード競争が起こったときに，1企業に勝ち目はあるのか？もう1つの問題は「PageRank」という名前自体に隠されている．PageRankはページを評価するアルゴリズムであるわけだが，Weblogではいままでの「ページ」の概念がほとんど通用せず，粒度が下がった「コンテンツ」が主役になっている．トップページのコンテンツは時々刻々と書き換えられていつの間にか総入れ替えになる．またコンテンツごとに多数のリンクが存在し，ページ全体として見ると同じ相手にリンクが5本10本張られることも起こりうる．これまでリンクのあり・なしだけで判断していたPageRank はこういうページをどう評価するだろうか？

世界は変わる．スピードと粒度の面で変貌しつつあるWebにGoogleはついていけるのか，Pyraの買収はそういった事態を見越してのことなのか，疑問は尽きない．もしかしたらすでに技術的に解決されてのかもしれない（情報求む）．個人的にはもう一度ボトムアップ的アプローチの時代が来ると思う（そしてそこに賭ける）のだが，これからどうなっていくのだろう．

Posted by i2k at 2003.05.27 09:09 PM

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